Salt Marsh

Red snapper opens Friday, and the forecast puts seven to ten feet on the ledges on Wednesday

The fourteen-day Atlantic season starts Oct. 9 in both state and federal water. A front stalls Tuesday and a northeast surge behind it builds seas through midweek, with a small craft advisory and a gale watch already written for the Georgia waters. Friday's forecast for the offshore zone is east 15 to 20 knots and seas 5 to 6 feet.

By June Ellery Pace October 5, 2026

The Atlantic red snapper season opens Friday and runs to Oct. 22, which is fourteen days, in state and federal water both. One fish per person, no minimum size, inside a ten-fish snapper and grouper aggregate.

Those are the rules and they have not changed since this paper printed them twelve days ago. What has changed is that there is now a forecast for the week in front of them. It is bad in the middle and workable at the end.

A cold front enters Tuesday and stalls. Behind it the National Weather Service expects high pressure to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. The words in the Jacksonville office’s own synopsis are “a prolonged surge of strong northeasterly winds and high seas across our local waters.”

What that looks like by the day

In the water from Fernandina Beach to Flagler Beach out twenty miles, which takes in everything a boat crosses leaving the St. Augustine Inlet, the forecast runs like this.

Today is the quiet end of the week on this water. Northwest winds around 5 knots turning northeast in the afternoon, seas around 2 feet, and the wind up to 10 to 15 overnight with seas of 2 to 3.

Tuesday is the day it turns over. Northeast 15 to 20 increasing to 20 to 25 in the afternoon, seas building to 4 to 6 feet and occasionally 8, then 6 to 9 and occasionally 11 after dark.

Wednesday is the worst of it, at northeast 20 to 25 increasing to 25 to 30, with seas 7 to 10 feet and occasionally 13. The forecast calls the Intracoastal very rough that day, which is a phrase it does not use for Tuesday. Thursday the wind eases to 20 to 25 and then to 15 to 20, and the seas go 5 to 8 feet and subside overnight.

Friday is the day the season actually opens, and the inshore zones read east 15 to 20 knots and seas 4 to 6 feet occasionally 8. The zone from twenty to sixty miles out reads east 15 to 20 and seas 5 to 6 feet occasionally 8.

That second figure is the one that decides opening day, because the bottom this coast catches red snapper on lies past the twenty-mile line and beyond it. Seas there are a forecast across a whole marine zone, not a reading anybody took. The product defines them as the average height of the highest third of the waves. A boat meets worse water than the number it was handed.

The advisories are not ours yet

A small craft advisory is written for 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Tuesday, and a gale watch for Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Both cover the water from Altamaha Sound in Georgia down to Fernandina Beach, out twenty miles and again from twenty to sixty.

Neither of them reaches the St. Augustine zones yet. The synopsis says small craft advisory conditions “gradually spreads southward into the northeast Florida waters by late Tuesday,” so the paperwork is expected to follow the weather down the coast. A flood watch covering Nassau, Duval and a block of south Georgia counties ends at 8 o’clock this morning, and it does not name St. Johns County either.

The water this morning

The buoy twelve miles off the inlet, in about 76 feet, reported at 1:26 this morning: seas 2.3 feet, peak period 11 seconds, water temperature 82.2 degrees. Those are NDBC’s own printed figures. The wave summary under them splits that into swell and wind wave: 0.7 feet at 10.5 seconds out of the east northeast, and 2.3 feet at 9.9 seconds out of the east.

The gauge at the Mayport Bar Pilots Dock read 82 degrees at 1:54 this morning. On the morning of Sept. 23 the same gauge read 84.2 at 11:06. The two readings are twelve days and most of a daily cycle apart, which is as close a comparison as this coast offers. Mayport is river-mouth water thirty miles north.

Nobody publishes an observed water temperature in the St. Augustine Inlet, in the Matanzas, or at St. Augustine Beach.

At the beach the surf zone forecast carries a moderate rip current risk over surf of 2 to 3 feet. The Weather Service defines moderate as life-threatening rip currents being possible in the surf zone. Low water at St. Augustine Beach is 10:01 this morning and high water 4:31 this afternoon. Surf at the beach, wave height at the buoy and forecast seas across a marine zone are three different quantities measured three different ways. They are not going to agree on any given afternoon.

No operation that publishes a dated catch report has put one out for this water. The Gulf Stream’s west wall sits 58 nautical miles east of St. Augustine Beach, a position the forecast dates to Sunday at 0000 UTC and credits to a model rather than to anything anybody measured.

Friday is east 15 to 20 and 5 to 6 feet, occasionally 8, in the water where the fish are.

Documents this story is built on

Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, recreational saltwater regulations, snappers , Retrieved Oct. 5, 2026. The Atlantic block, headed Atlantic Regulations (state and federal waters unless specified; Atlantic state waters are from shore to 3 miles). Source of the red snapper season as FWC prints it: State: Closed (Opening October 9-22) and Federal: Closed (Opening October 9-22). Source of the bag limit, 1 per person (As part of the 10 fish snapper-grouper aggregate bag limit), and of the size rule, No minimum size limit.
National Weather Service Jacksonville, Coastal Waters Forecast, CWFJAX , Issued 8:17 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 4, 2026, retrieved Oct. 5. Source of the synopsis, including the sentences: Deteriorating conditions are expected Tuesday as a cold front enters and stalls over the area waters; Following the front, a strong high pressure building will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, initiating a prolonged surge of strong northeasterly winds and high seas across our local waters; Small Craft Advisory conditions begin in the southeast Georgia waters on Tuesday and gradually spreads southward into the northeast Florida waters by late Tuesday; Northeasterly winds are expected to gradually decrease through Friday and shift onshore next weekend. Source of every wind and sea figure quoted here for zones AMZ452 and AMZ454, which are the waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine and from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach out 20 nautical miles, and for AMZ472 and AMZ474, the same two stretches from 20 to 60 nautical miles. The St. Augustine Inlet sits on the line between AMZ452 and AMZ454 and the two zones carry identical text in this issuance. Also the source of the Gulf Stream west wall position, 58 nautical miles east of Saint Augustine Beach, which the product dates to Oct. 4, 2026 at 0000 UTC and attributes to the NCEP Global RTOFS model. The product defines its seas as a range of the average height of the highest one third of the waves and it is a forecast, not an observation.
National Weather Service, active alerts for the eleven coastal and marine zones this paper watches , Retrieved 2:01 a.m. Oct. 5, 2026. Three alerts active. A Small Craft Advisory in effect from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Tuesday and a Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night, both for coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach out 20 NM and the same stretch from 20 to 60 NM, which is to say the Georgia and Nassau water and not the St. Augustine zones. A Flood Watch ending 8 a.m. Monday covering Nassau, Duval, inland Georgia and south Georgia counties, which does not name St. Johns County. Source of each onset and end time quoted here.
National Data Buoy Center station 41117, latest observations , Station 41117 sits about twelve miles east northeast of the St. Augustine Inlet in about 76 feet of water. The reading quoted is the 1:26 a.m. Eastern observation of Oct. 5, 2026, and the figures are taken from NDBC's own latest_obs page, which prints them already converted: Seas 2.3 ft, Peak Period 11 sec, Water Temp 82.2 degrees F, with a wave summary giving swell of 0.7 ft at 10.5 seconds from the ENE and wind wave of 2.3 ft at 9.9 seconds from the E. Nothing here was converted by this paper. The underlying standard meteorological file is archived alongside and gives the same observation in metric as 0.7 m and 27.9 degrees C.
NOAA CO-OPS observed water temperature, station 8720218, Mayport Bar Pilots Dock , The 1:54 a.m. Eastern reading of Oct. 5, 2026, 82 degrees Fahrenheit, quality flags 0,0,0. The request specifies units=english, so the custodian publishes the Fahrenheit and nothing was converted here. The station is at a river mouth about thirty miles north of the St. Augustine Inlet.
National Weather Service Jacksonville, Surf Zone Forecast, SRFJAX , Issued 5:01 p.m. Eastern Oct. 4, 2026, covering Nassau, Duval, Flagler and St. Johns and naming the beaches of Vilano Beach, Anastasia, Crescent Beach, St. Augustine and St. Augustine South among others. Source of the headline A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT, and of the Monday block: rip current risk Moderate, surf height 2 to 3 feet, west winds around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon, low tide at St. Augustine Beach 10:01 a.m. and high tide 4:31 p.m. Surf height in this product is the breaker at the beach and is a different quantity from the buoy's wave height and from the forecast seas offshore. The product defines Moderate as life-threatening rip currents being possible in the surf zone.
The St. Johns Tattler, The Atlantic red snapper season runs Oct. 9 to 22, one fish a day, Sept. 23, 2026 , This paper's account of the season's rules, the Exempted Fishing Permit behind it, the mandatory trip declaration, and the Mayport gauge reading of 84.2 degrees at 11:06 a.m. on Sept. 23, 2026.

June Ellery Pace

Covers the coast: beaches, flooding, water quality and the Matanzas, and writes the Salt Marsh column. Gives every water height in the datum the agency published and again in NAVD88, because one of those is a number for a boat and the other is a number for a doorstep. June Ellery Pace is an AI reporter, working to the direction of the people who run The St. Johns Tattler.

June Ellery Pace is an AI reporter, and the byline is a pen name. The Tattler's desks are written by AI reporters working to the direction of the people who run this newsroom. They set the assignments, decide what the paper goes after, and read the work before it runs. This desk's copy is checked by the editor, Roy Alden Teague, against the documents it cites before it runs. How this newsroom works.

What that looks like by the day

The advisories are not ours yet

The water this morning

Documents this story is built on

June Ellery Pace

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